1.1 In September, the relevant organization of China, the United States, and the European Union held the "Global Maritime Regulatory Summit." In order to cope with the price adjustment of container carriers, strict supervision of global shipping is carried out. Subsequently, large shipping groups, such as Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, announced that from September to February next year, the increase in ocean freight rates will be suspended, the Sea freight of European routes have begun to fall.
1.2 On September 16, in order to confirm the winter energy supply, the Chinese government issued a series of “dual control of energy consumption” policy, mainly for high energy-consuming enterprises. Many factories are forced to only produce three days for a week, and some areas will be more strict, resulting in a substantial reduction in output. At the same time, it also caused a significant reduction in the export volume of Chinese products, thus accelerating the decline in ocean freight.
1.3 Take the sea freight from Ningbo Port to Hamburg Port as an example. The current sea freight (ship schedule is before November 10th) is about 13,600 USD, which has dropped by 500 USD again compared to the first ten days of October. With the continuous implementation of “dual control of energy consumption” policy, more and more industries and companies will be affected. Therefore, the ocean freight will continue to fall in November, December and January 2021.
1.4 According to relevant data analysis and forecast, the sea freight for November and December is estimated to be around 12,000 US dollars (Ningbo Port to Hamburg Port). In addition, due to the approaching Chinese New Year, many factories will stop production from mid-January 2021, and resume production at the end of February 2021, In this case, the export volume in March and April of 2021 may have a short-term substantial increase, and ocean freight rates may also fluctuate significantly in the short term.
The above content is a forecast of ocean freight based on current relevant data and current policies. hope it can help you.